Search for: All records

Flood peak magnitudes and frequency estimates are key components of any effective nationwide flood risk management and flood damage abatement program. In this study, we evaluated normalized peak design discharges (Qp) for 1,387 hydrologic unit code 16 to 20 (HUC16-20) watersheds in the White Mountain National Forest (WMNF), New Hampshire and in five Experimental Forest (EF) regions across the United States managed by USDA Forest Service (USDA-FS). Nonstationary regional frequency analysis (RFA) and single site frequency analysis (FA) with long-term high-resolution observed streamflow data along with the deterministic Rational Method (RM) and semi-empirical United States Geological Survey regional regression equation (USGS-RRE) were used. Additionally, a hydrologic vulnerability assessment was performed for 194 road culverts as a result of extreme precipitation-induced flooding on gauged and ungauged watersheds in the Hubbard Brook EF (HBR) within the WMNF. The RM outperformed the USGS-RRE in predicting Qp in the gauged and ungauged HUC16-20 watersheds of WMNF and in three other small, high-relief forest headwater watersheds—Coweeta Hydrologic Lab EF’s watershed-14, and watershed-27 in North Carolina and HJ Andrews EF’s watershed 8 in Oregon. However, the USGS-RRE performed better for larger watersheds, such as the Fraser EF’s St. Louis watershed in Colorado and the Santee EF’s watershed 80 in South Carolina. About 31 %, 26 %, and 56 % of the culverts at the HBR site could not accommodate the 100-yr Qp estimated by RFA, RM and USGS-RRE, respectively. Based on the chosen RIs and techniques, it is determined that except for one culvert with diameter = 0.91 m (36 in.), none of the culverts with diameter of 0.75 m (30 in.) or larger are hydrologically vulnerable. Our results suggest that the observation based RFA works best where multiple gauges are available to extrapolate information for ungauged watersheds, otherwise, RM is best-suited for smaller headwater watersheds and USGS-RRE for larger watersheds. Results from the hydrologic vulnerability analysis revealed that replacing undersized culverts with new culverts of diameter ≥ 0.75-m will improve flood resiliency, provided that the structure is geomorphologically safe (with minimal effects of debris flow, erosion, and sedimentation) and allows for both bank-full discharge and necessary fish passage within that design limit. This study has implications in managing road culverts and crossings at Forest Service and other forested lands for their resiliency to extreme precipitation and flooding hazards induced by climate change. 

Abstract Urgency of Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) estimation using the most recent data has grown significantly due to recent intense precipitation and cloud burst circumstances impacting infrastructure caused by climate change. Given the continually available digitized up-to-date, long-term, and fine resolution precipitation dataset from the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service’s (USDAFS) Experimental Forests and Ranges (EF) rain gauge stations, it is both important and relevant to develop precipitation IDF from onsite dataset (Onsite-IDF) that incorporates the most recent time period, aiding in the design, and planning of forest road-stream crossing structures (RSCS) in headwaters to maintain resilient forest ecosystems. Here we developed Onsite-IDFs for hourly and sub-hourly duration, and 25-yr, 50-yr, and 100-yr design return intervals (RIs) from annual maxima series (AMS) of precipitation intensities (PIs) modeled by applying Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) analysis and L-moment based parameter estimation methodology at six USDAFS EFs and compared them with precipitation IDFs obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 (NOAA-Atlas14). A regional frequency analysis (RFA) was performed for EFs where data from multiple precipitation gauges are available. NOAA’s station-based precipitation IDFs were estimated for comparison using RFA (NOAA-RFA) at one of the EFs where NOAA-Atlas14 precipitation IDFs are unavailable. Onsite-IDFs were then evaluated against the PIs from NOAA-Atlas14 and NOAA-RFA by comparing their relative differences and storm frequencies. Results show considerable relative differences between the Onsite- and NOAA-Atlas14 (or NOAA-RFA) IDFs at these EFs, some of which are strongly dependent on the storm durations and elevation of precipitation gauges, particularly in steep, forested sites of H. J. Andrews (HJA) and Coweeta Hydrological Laboratory (CHL) EFs. At the higher elevation gauge of HJA EF, NOAA-RFA based precipitation IDFs underestimate PI of 25-yr, 50-yr, and 100-yr RIs by considerable amounts for 12-h and 24-h duration storm events relative to the Onsite-IDFs. At the low-gradient Santee (SAN) EF, the PIs of 3- to 24-h storm events with 100-yr frequency (or RI) from NOAA-Atlas14 gauges are found to be equivalent to PIs of more frequent storm events (25–50-yr RI) as estimated from the onsite dataset. Our results recommend use of the Onsite-IDF estimates for the estimation of design storm peak discharge rates at the higher elevation catchments of HJA, CHL, and SAN EF locations, particularly for longer duration events, where NOAA-based precipitation IDFs underestimate the PIs relative to the Onsite-IDFs. This underscores the importance of long-term high resolution EF data for new applications including ecological restorations and indicates that planning and design teams should use as much local data as possible or account for potential PI inconsistencies or underestimations if local data are unavailable. 

Accurate mapping of headwater streams and their flow status has important implications for understanding and managing water resources and land uses. However, accurate information is rare, especially in rugged, forested terrain. We developed a streamflow permanence classification model for forested lands in western Oregon using the latest light detection and ranging‐derived hydrography published in the National Hydrography Dataset. Models were trained using 2,518 flow/no flow field observations collected in late summer 2019–2021 across headwaters of 129 sub‐watersheds. The final model, the Western Oregon WeT DRy model, used Random Forest and 13 environmental covariates for classifying every 5‐m stream sub‐reach across 426 sub‐watersheds. The most important covariates were annual precipitation and drainage area. Model output included probabilities of late summer surface flow presence and were subsequently categorized into three streamflow permanence classes—Wet, Dry, and Ambiguous. Ambiguous denoted model probabilities and associated prediction intervals that extended over the 50% classification threshold between wet and dry. Model accuracy was 0.83 for sub‐watersheds that contained training data and decreased to 0.67 for sub‐watersheds that did not have observations of late summer surface flow. The model identified where predictions extrapolated beyond the domain characterized by the training data. The combination of spatially continuous estimates of late summer streamflow status along with uncertainty and extrapolation estimates provide critical information for strategic project planning and designing additional field data collection. 

Abstract Predicting the edges of species distributions is fundamental for species conservation, ecosystem services, and management decisions. In North America, the location of the upstream limit of fish in forested streams receives special attention, because fish-bearing portions of streams have more protections during forest management activities than fishless portions. We present a novel model development and evaluation framework, wherein we compare 26 models to predict upper distribution limits of trout in streams. The models used machine learning, logistic regression, and a sophisticated nested spatial cross-validation routine to evaluate predictive performance while accounting for spatial autocorrelation. The model resulting in the best predictive performance, termed UPstream Regional LiDAR Model for Extent of Trout (UPRLIMET), is a two-stage model that uses a logistic regression algorithm calibrated to observations of Coastal Cutthroat Trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii ) occurrence and variables representing hydro-topographic characteristics of the landscape. We predict trout presence along reaches throughout a stream network, and include a stopping rule to identify a discrete upper limit point above which all stream reaches are classified as fishless. Although there is no simple explanation for the upper distribution limit identified in UPRLIMET, four factors, including upstream channel length above the point of uppermost fish, drainage area, slope, and elevation, had highest importance. Across our study region of western Oregon, we found that more of the fish-bearing network is on private lands than on state, US Bureau of Land Mangement (BLM), or USDA Forest Service (USFS) lands, highlighting the importance of using spatially consistent maps across a region and working across land ownerships. Our research underscores the value of using occurrence data to develop simple, but powerful, prediction tools to capture complex ecological processes that contribute to distribution limits of species. 

Abstract AimClimate change is broadly affecting phenology, but species‐specific phenological response to temperature is not well understood. In streams, insect emergence has important ecosystem‐level consequences because emergent adults link aquatic and terrestrial food webs. We quantified emergence timing and duration (within‐population synchronicity) of insects among streams along a spatiotemporal gradient of mean water temperature in a montane basin to assess the sensitivity of these phenological traits to heat accumulation from mid‐winter through spring emergence periods. LocationSix headwater streams in the Lookout Creek basin, H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon, USA. MethodsWe collected emerging adults of four abundant insect species twice weekly throughout spring for 6 consecutive years. We fit Gaussian models to the empirical temporal distributions to characterize peak emergence timing (mean) and duration (days between 5th and 95th percentiles) for each species/stream/year combination. We then quantified relationships between degree‐day accumulation and phenological response. ResultsOnly one of the four species (a caddisfly) showed a simple response of earlier emergence timing in both warmer streams and years. One stonefly had lengthy emergence periods resulting in substantial phenological overlap between warmer and cooler streams/years. Interestingly, two species (a mayfly and a stonefly) responded strongly to temporal (interannual) temperature differences but minimally to spatial differences, indicating that emergence was nearly synchronous among streams, within years. These two species had among‐stream differences approaching 500 degree‐days from mid‐winter to peak emergence. Conversely, duration of emergence was more strongly associated with spatial than temporal differences, with longer duration in lower‐elevation (warmer) streams. Main conclusionsEmergence phenology has species‐specific responses to temperature likely driven by complex cues for diapause or quiescence periods during preceding life cycle stages. We hypothesize a trade‐off between complex phenological response that synchronizes emergence among heterogeneous sites and other traits such as adult longevity and dispersal capacity. 

Abstract Atmospheric deposition of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to terrestrial ecosystems is a small, but rarely studied component of the global carbon (C) cycle. Emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and organic particulates are the sources of atmospheric C and deposition represents a major pathway for the removal of organic C from the atmosphere. Here, we evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of DOC deposition using 70 data sets at least one year in length ranging from 40° south to 66° north latitude. Globally, the median DOC concentration in bulk deposition was 1.7 mg L⁻¹. The DOC concentrations were significantly higher in tropical (<25°) latitudes compared to temperate (>25°) latitudes. DOC deposition was significantly higher in the tropics because of both higher DOC concentrations and precipitation. Using the global median or latitudinal specific DOC concentrations leads to a calculated global deposition of 202 or 295 Tg C yr⁻¹respectively. Many sites exhibited seasonal variability in DOC concentration. At temperate sites, DOC concentrations were higher during the growing season; at tropical sites, DOC concentrations were higher during the dry season. Thirteen of the thirty‐four long‐term (>10 years) data sets showed significant declines in DOC concentration over time with the others showing no significant change. Based on the magnitude and timing of the various sources of organic C to the atmosphere, biogenic VOCs likely explain the latitudinal pattern and the seasonal pattern at temperate latitudes while decreases in anthropogenic emissions are the most likely explanation for the declines in DOC concentration. 

Abstract Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON) are important energy and nutrient sources for aquatic ecosystems. In many northern temperate, freshwater systems DOC has increased in the past 50 years. Less is known about how changes in DOC may vary across latitudes, and whether changes in DON track those of DOC. Here, we present long‐term DOC and DON data from 74 streams distributed across seven sites in biomes ranging from the tropics to northern boreal forests with varying histories of atmospheric acid deposition. For each stream, we examined the temporal trends of DOC and DON concentrations and DOC:DON molar ratios. While some sites displayed consistent positive or negative trends in stream DOC and DON concentrations, changes in direction or magnitude were inconsistent at regional or local scales. DON trends did not always track those of DOC, though DOC:DON ratios increased over time for ~30% of streams. Our results indicate that the dissolved organic matter (DOM) pool is experiencing fundamental changes due to the recovery from atmospheric acid deposition. Changes in DOC:DON stoichiometry point to a shifting energy‐nutrient balance in many aquatic ecosystems. Sustained changes in the character of DOM can have major implications for stream metabolism, biogeochemical processes, food webs, and drinking water quality (including disinfection by‐products). Understanding regional and global variation in DOC and DON concentrations is important for developing realistic models and watershed management protocols to effectively target mitigation efforts aimed at bringing DOM flux and nutrient enrichment under control. 

ABSTRACT Anthropogenic increases in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations can strongly influence the structure and function of ecosystems. Even though lotic ecosystems receive cumulative inputs of nutrients applied to and deposited on land, no comprehensive assessment has quantified nutrient‐enrichment effects within streams and rivers. We conducted a meta‐analysis of published studies that experimentally increased concentrations of N and/or P in streams and rivers to examine how enrichment alters ecosystem structure (state: primary producer and consumer biomass and abundance) and function (rate: primary production, leaf breakdown rates, metabolism) at multiple trophic levels (primary producer, microbial heterotroph, primary and secondary consumers, and integrated ecosystem). Our synthesis included 184 studies, 885 experiments, and 3497 biotic responses to nutrient enrichment. We documented widespread increases in organismal biomass and abundance (mean response = +48%) and rates of ecosystem processes (+54%) to enrichment across multiple trophic levels, with no large differences in responses among trophic levels or between autotrophic or heterotrophic food‐web pathways. Responses to nutrient enrichment varied with the nutrient added (N, P, or both) depending on rateversusstate variable and experiment type, and were greater in flume and whole‐stream experiments than in experiments using nutrient‐diffusing substrata. Generally, nutrient‐enrichment effects also increased with water temperature and light, and decreased under elevated ambient concentrations of inorganic N and/or P. Overall, increased concentrations of N and/or P altered multiple food‐web pathways and trophic levels in lotic ecosystems. Our results indicate that preservation or restoration of biodiversity and ecosystem functions of streams and rivers requires management of nutrient inputs and consideration of multiple trophic pathways.